Saturday, February 25, 2012

ce #4

The upcoming March 2 parliamentary elections in Iran are expected to have a low turnout from the middle class, two years after anti-government protests by middle class Iranians following an election were quelled by the government.

This article highlights the middle class's discontent that surfaced in the 2009 protests and is still present in Iran today. Though protests on such a large scale are unlikely, it's not probable that this cohort of voters will participate in the elections. This political apathy is harmful to Iran's legitimacy- as we've discussed in class, legitimacy comes from the eyes of the citizens, and is then reinforced by the international community. The censored, state-run nature of political culture in Iran is disgruntling the pragmatic middle class, and a drop in support from its citizens is arguably the last thing Iran needs right now.

The disparity between reality and the ever-optimistic reality as described by the state government as explained in the article illustrates the Iranian regime's domestic issues. Though Iran has continued to boast of its nuclear capabilities and stand in defiance against more and more oil sanctions in the past few weeks, it clearly has domestic struggles that it will need to take care of before it can become involved in global politics in a meaningful way. The unhappiness of the middle class also serves to further emphasize what many critics of Iran's recent actions have posited: that the Iranian government's tight hold on power is slipping, and that what we hear from Iranian leaders is often bluster meant to distract us from the reality of the conditions in the country.

{via The Washington Post}

Friday, February 17, 2012

ce #3

Many claims came out of Iran this week, including threats to cut off oil sales to the European Union as well as boasts about Iran's supposed advances in nuclear technology.

These threats and comments come as Iran is facing scrutiny by the international community regarding its nuclear program, and tensions over oil trade is mounting. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has only heightened such tensions.

The comments made by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials and institutions have been viewed by the U.S. as bluster. Many American officials see the claims and threats as empty attempts by the Iranian leadership to assert authority and strength amidst increasingly tight Western social and economic sanctions- meaning that the West's policies are being viewed as effective.

Our relations with Iran will certainly continue to be uncertain until we determine an effective way to achieve our diplomatic goals while still retaining access to Iran's oil. Iran's nuclear capabilities are a frightening thought, but how big of a threat they actually are and how much Iran wants us to think they are remains to be seen.

{via The Washington Post}

Sunday, February 12, 2012

ce #2

Yshe Rigsal, a monk, and his brother were shot and killed by Chinese security forces this past Thursday as a result of their protests against Chinese rule in Tibet. Self-immolations have steadily continued throughout the past three years, as tensions between China and Tibet cease to be resolved.

Tibet's political status has long been debated. It is currently ruled by the People's Republic of China, but dissident groups want Tibetan autonomy for the region. It has also been alleged that human rights abuses by the Chinese against the Tibetan people have taken place. The independence movement is currently led by Free Tibet, a group based in London.

The continuing tensions between Tibet and China illustrate some of the major domestic problems China faces. Despite its surging economy, China will not be able to reach its full potential without settling matters within its borders. Furthermore, the self-immolations and deaths of Tibetans are severely underreported in Western media, highlighting a deficiency in the way we understand the rest of the world.

{via The New York Times}

Monday, February 6, 2012

ce #1

The ruling party in Mexico, the National Action Party (PAN), has chosen Josefina Vazquez Mota to be its candidate in Mexico's July 1 elections. Current President Felipe Calderon is ending his sixth year in office, and will be unable to run again as per Mexican law.

Mexican politics have historically been dominated by three parties: the more conservative National Action Party, the center-left Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and the Party of the Democratic Revolution. The Party of the Democratic Revolution has selected Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as its candidate; he lost the election in 2006 by a narrow margin. The current frontrunner in the race is the PRI's Enrique Pena Nieto.

Mexico has been plagued by drug wars throughout President Calderon's term in office; this could cause significant problems for Josefina Vazquez Mota. However, the excitement of potentially having a female president may excite voters and overrule these other issues. Though females have run for president in the past, Vazquez Mota's candidacy marks the first time one of the three major parties have nominated a woman.

{via Time}